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2018-01-25 11:46
Handicapping Super Bowl

While we haven’t even played Super Bowl XLIII, Super Bowl XLIV odds are already up and bettors are wagering feverishly on teams they think have a chance to be top dog next season.

Ok, while we can’t give you THE pick for the winner of next year’s Super Bowl, we can give you some guidance on what is good value and what isn’t.

First off, let’s erase any rookie head coach from the equation. No rookie head coach has ever won the big game and we aren’t going to start picking them to win it now.

That means you’re not going to be betting on: the Jets, 49ers, Lions, Chiefs, Broncos, Browns, Rams, Raiders, Buccaneers or Colts. The Seahawks will have Jim Mora Jr., a former sideline boss in Atlanta, so we keep them on the list for now. While most of these teams aren’t going to be contenders, the temptation may have been to take advantage of the odds and bet on one or two of them as long shots.

Next, let’s remove the Cardinals and Steelers from Super Bowl XLIV betting options. It’s extremely tough to get back to the NFL title game and odds are neither team will duplicate the incredible season they’ve had this year.

On to the quarterback situation. We all know that with the exception of Trent Dilfer with the 2000 Ravens, every NFL champion has a great quarterback. Simply put, it means we can cross off some more teams from our betting list for next season.

Teams without an experienced and successful quarterback at the helm to eliminate are: Buffalo, Washington (Campbell did not play in the recent Redskins postseason action a couple of years ago), Chicago, Houston, Minnesota and Green Bay. Even though Aaron Rodgers had a good year, he is still not experienced enough. However, in the case of Matt Ryan, he has done more in his rookie season than almost any rookie of all-time, so we can’t put Atlanta on the elimination list.

That means we are left with: Atlanta, Baltimore, Carolina, Cincinnati, Dallas, Miami, New England, New York Giants, New Orleans, Philadelphia, San Diego, Seattle and Tennessee. We have 13 teams to choose from.

Okay, here is where we make some obvious cuts. Let’s remove Cincy and Seattle from the list because they have to overhaul their programs. Each team is at least a year away. Now we have 11 teams.

I think we can cross off Dallas because of the intense pressure on Tony Romo. So far, he has not risen to each major challenge. Moving on, the Ravens lose defensive coordinator Rex Ryan and may lose Ray Lewis, so let’s scratch them off as well. That takes us down to nine teams.

Philadelphia has some holes at the receiving position and their window is starting to close. The same might be said for the Giants if they don’t replace or re-sign Plaxico Burress, their only real downfield threat. You can probably add in the Panthers, who have a lot of older players. So we are at six contenders remaining.

Miami may have overachieved last season and they won’t sneak up on anyone this time. The same can be said for the Titans.  That leaves us with four teams.

In the final four teams to examine, we have to look at the clubs that are the most motivated and have something to prove. Of the Saints, Patriots, Falcons and Chargers, New England will have the most to prove since they failed to make the postseason. But, with Tom Brady coming off surgery and some aging defensive players, do they have the horses?

As for Atlanta, they could use one more impact player on each side of the ball – which they could draft/sign this offseason. New Orleans had a lot of injuries last season, but it was their poor play on defense that prevented them from playing in postseason play.

And if you consider the Chargers, they have a questionable running back position for next season with Tomlinson and the potential loss of Sproles. Still, one figures to be in the backfield in 2009.

All this to say we think the Chargers, with a returning Shawn Merriman on defense, feel like the https://betbubbles.com/superbowl/. Currently, San Diego is listed at 12/1 for next year’s title.

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2018-01-25 11:46